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95-392r =^' +!—S'M�� 3i95 Council File # 95-392 Ordinance # � � � � ` � Green Sheet # 29906 Presented By Referred To ORDiNANCE �INT.PAUL, MINNESOTA An Interim Ordinance imposing a moratorium within the City of Saint Paul on the location or transfer of off-sale liquor establishments pending the completion of studies of possible amendments to the City's Comprehensive Plan and Regulatory Ordinances. This Interim Ordinance is enacted pursuant to the authority granted by Minnesota Statutes 1994 Section 462355„ subdivision 4. THE COUNCIL OF THE CIT1' OF SAINT PAUL DOES ORDAIN: Section 1 � The Saint Paul City Council has initiated a study of the City's Comprehensive Plan relating to the zoning classification and districts regarding the location of off-sale liquor establishments and the Planning Commission has been requested to study the matter and submit its report and recommendations to the Council. Section 2 Pending the completion of this study and for the purpose of prohibiting the establishment or relocation of any off-sale liquor establishment that might be inconsistent with these pending studies, and for a period of time not to exceed one year from the date of the adoption of this interim ordinance, no permit or license for the establishment or relocation of any off- sale liquor establishment may be issued or approved by the City, its officers, employees, agents or commissions. Notwithstanding this restriction, any currently licensed off-sale liquor establishment may continue at its present location e)�:;;e3 �i�e�.? be renewed bv the Ci Section 3 , of The restrictions enacted herein shall continue in full force until a comprehensive policy for the City can be adopted, or for `�5-3`1� 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 one year, whichever occurs sooner, and which restrictions may be extended by resolution of the City Council for additional periods of time, not to exceed an additional 18 months, in the event the studies and recommendations of the Planning Commission and the deliberations of the City Council reguire such extension. Section 4 This ordinance shall take effect and be in force thirty days from and after its passage, approval and publication. PI REt ieuck JUN 10 1995 Requested by Department of: By: By: �.. By: Form Approved by City Attorney / / e �'/ �/� `7J BY: ' �?�n�t ��t � -�//l o✓vt�C Approved by Mayor for Submission to Council By: Adopted by Council: Date ��. � l S � Adoption Certified by Council Se retary ��'-3 9�-- DC3LyCOUI1CII'CE/CAUNpI DATEINRIATED GREEN SHEET N� 29966 4�12/95 CONTACTPEFSON&PHONE OOEPARTMENTOIRE OCI7YCOUNCIL �NRIAVDATE JerryBlakey266-8610 p$$�GN OCRVATTORNEY �CITYCLERK MUST BE ON COUNGL AGENDA BY (DATE) ROUfING � BU�G� DIRECTOR � FIN. & MGT. SERVICES Difl. OHOER O �pYOR (OR ASSISTANn O TOTAL # OF SIGNATURE PAGES (CLIP ALL LOCATIONS FOR SIGNATURE) ACTION RE�UESTED: An Interim Ordinance imPosing a moratari�witbin tl� City of Saint Paul on the location or transP� of off-sale liquor establist�ments pend'mg the completion of studies of possible amendments to the City's Comprehensive Plan. RECAMMENDA7IONS: approve (A) or fieject (R) pERSONAL SERVICE CON7RAC7S MUST ANSWER THE FOLLOW�NG �UESTIONS: _ PLANNING COMMISSION _ CIVIL SEFVICE COMMISSION �� Has [his person/firm ever worketl untler a contract fo� this tlepaRmentt — GB COMMfffEE _ YES NO 2. Has this person/firm ever been a city employee? — STAFF — YES NO _ UiS7RIC7 COUR7 _ 3. Does this personflirm possess a skill not normally possessed by any current ciry amployee? SUPPORTS WHICH COUNCILO&�ECTIVE? VES NO Explain all yes answefs on separete sheet anA attach to green sheet INITIATING PROBLEM, ISSUE, OPPORTUNITY (Who, Whet. When, Where, Why): Cucrenfly, off-sale license aze allowed in Zoning areas B-1 and above and there are areas of concentration that may have negative impacts on the community. ADVANTAGESIFAPPROVED� The City will conduct the appropriate planning before transferring or issuing new licenses. DISADVANTAGES IFAPPROVED None. ,�,, �� ,�� ,� �,� � . ��. s �� (�� DISADVANTAGES IF NOTAPPROVED� The City will continue to issue licenses without the appropriate planning. 70TALAMOUNTOPTRANSAC710N $ COST/REVENUEBUDGETEO(CIfiCLEONE) YES NO FUNDIIdG SOUFCE ACTIVI7Y NUMBER FINANCIAI INFORMATION. (EXPLAIN) ' � ME N'Q E'p - y) a� I q s Council File # 95-392 Ordinance # � 0 R f G 1 N A L Green Sheet � 29906 X ORDINANCE 3v CITY OF SAINT PAUL, MINNESOTA Presented By Committee: Re£erred Pc An Interim Ordinance imposing a moratorium within the it` of Saint Pau1 on the location or transfer of off-sale liqu establishments pending the completion of studies of p sible amendments to the Cit}�s Comprehensive Plan and Regulatory Ordinances. This Interim Ordinance is nacted pursuant to the authority granted by Minnesota S tutes 1994 Section 462.355„ subdivision 4. THE COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF SAIIQT PAUL,➢OES ORDAIN: Section 1 The Saint Paul City Council has i tiated a study of the City's Comprehensive Plan relating to he zoning classification and districts regarding the location f off-sale liquor establishments and the Planning Comm ssion has been requested to study the matter and submit its rep rt and recommendations to the Council. Sectyon 2 Pending the completion of his study and for the purpose of prohibiting the establishment r relocation of any off-sale liquor establishment that mi t be inconsistent with these pending studies, and for a riod of time not to exceed one year from the date of the adopt' n of this interim ordinance, no permit or license £or the stablishment or relocation of any off- sale liquor establishmen may be issued or approved by the City, its officers, employees, agents or commissions. Notwithstanding this restriction, any rrently licensed ofP-sale liquor establishment may con nue at its present location cx�:_a ��w :�t�� 1Qca�zeo�;:b� _. :Xfitk��ac:7�ady.:'.kzav�xiz3.:tize__po�e�. a�? :emzt�e�� i��n;{`througfi �he erm of the license, and upon expiration of ;h license may e renewed by the City Council_t �t�d;�ur�h�� _ .re�tl�?: �ieeri� �2 �i�f salE:_ �.Yquor: establi:s�inen� may trar�sfer: zts =ense ta � ne 1ic�nsa:holdez' fa�: ttt�:same.:lQ�atii?�i. �n �ordar�ce w� �aw.: : . . . .. Section 3 The estrictions enacted herein shall continue in full force until a omprehensive policy for the City can be adopted, or Por one ye� , whichever occurs sooner, and which restrictions may be extended by resolution of the City Council for additional periods .1 2 3 4 � 6 7 8 �'�39y of time, not to exceed an additional 18 months, in the event the � studies and recommendations of the Planning Commission and the ' deliberations o£ the City Council require such extension. Section 4 This ordinance shall take effect and be in force thirty from and after its passage, approval and publication. Adopted by Council: Adoption Certified by By: Approved by Mayor Date Secretary Requested by Department of: By: Form Appro,ed by City Attorney By: � /'I // ( ,� � Approved�by Mayor� Submissio❑ to Council By: By: 0 1 \ � l� � � i : � Council Fi1e # �� Ordinance # _ _ _ _� _ _ Green Sheet # ORDINANCE CITY OF SAINT PAUL, MINNESOTA Presented By Referred To Committee: D An Interim Ordinance imposing a moratorium within the City of Saint Paul on the location or transfer of off-sale li,quor establishements pending the completion of studies �sf possible amendments to the City's Comprehensive Plan a d Regulatory Ordinances. This Interim Ordinanc is enacted pursuant to the authority granted by Minneso Statutes 1994 Section 462.355„ subdivision 4. THE COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF SASNT P Section 1 DOES ORDAIN: The Saint Paul City Council ha initiated a study of the City's Comprehensive Plan relating o the zoning classification and districts regarding the locat'on of off-sale liquor establishments and the Planning ommission has been requested to study the matter and submit its eport and recommendations tp the Council. on 2 Pending the completion of this study and for the purpose of prohibiting the establishm nt or relocation of any off-sale liquor establishment that might be inconsistent with these pending studies, and for a period of time not to exceed one year from the date of the ad tion of this interim ordinance, no permit or license £or e establishment or relocation of any off- sale liquor establish ent may be issued or approved by the City, its officers, employ s, agents or commissions. Notwithstanding this restriction, a currently licensed off-sale liquor establishment may ntinue at its present location through the term oP the licen , and upon expiration of such license may be renewed by the C' y Council. Section 3 The res ictions enacted herein shall continue in full force until a comp ehensive policy for the City can be adopted, or for one year, w ichever occurs sooner, and which restrictions may be extended b resolution of the City Council for additional periods of time, ot to exceed an additional 18 months, in the event the studies and recommendations of the Flanning Commission and the deliberations of the City Council require such extension. � 2 3 4 5 6 Section 4 This ordinance shall take effect and be in force thirty £rom and after its passage, approval and publication. j Requested by Department of: Adopted by Council: Adoption Certified By: Approved by May.or: By: Council Secretary Date By: Form App�oved by BY� / � ffv',.t� , /!�, r AppYoVed by M� Council i By: 9�'- 3 s�. � for Submission to ''.r� ��-- , JERRY BLAKEY Counc$membes MEMORANDUM T0: Council President Dave Thune Councilmember Marie Grimm Councilmember Dino Guerin Councilmember Mike Harris FROM: RE: DATE I wili be bringing the attached resofution and ordinance in under suspension today. I feel it is extremely important that we conduct a study to look at the impact these licenses have on our community. To that end, the City Council should also consider directing the Office of LIEP to not accept any further licenses unti! the study can be completed. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Please contact me or Gerry Mclnerney at 266-8610, if you have any questions. CITY OF SAINT PAUL OFFICE OF THE CITY COUNCIL Councilmember Bobbi Megard Councilmember Janice Rettman Councilmember .lerry Biake��j ORDINANCE AND RESOLUTION PERTAINING TO AN INTERlM MORATORIUM ON OFF-SALE LIQUOR LICENSES April 12, 1995 g� 3 q.� Attachments CITY HALL THdRD FLOOR SAINT PAUL, MINNESOTA 55102 612/266-8610 s <a Privted on RecyUed Paper qPR 26 '95 14:51 PRGE.02 95 -39� April 26, 1995 Saint Paul City Council City Hali and Court House 15 West Kelloqg Boulevard St. Paul, MN 55102 Dear Councilmembers, At the reqularly scheduled Board of Directors meeting held Tuesday, April 25, 1995 the 3UPC directors discussed resolution 95-392, an ordinanoe imposing a moratorium within the Citp of Saint Paul on the location or transfer of off-sale liquor establishments pending the completion of studies of possible amendments to the City's Comprehensive Plan and Regulatory ordinances. The board voted unanimously in support of the moratorium. We look forward to active participation in the Planning Commission study. Sincerely, <-a�°=�=-� � c,�� Gregg De Sho� Executive Director �x* TOTRL PRGE.02 *�x SUMMIT-UNIVERSITY PLANNING COUNCIL ■ , USC Health Sciences News q 5 3 9�. University of Southern California Office oFHeal[h Scienccs Pablic Rclations 225(f Aicazar Sffeet (C5C 137), Iaa nn3e.lac, Califomia 9�035 (214� 842-2830 Fax (21S) ?142-2832 CORtSC1: � 213/342-2830 USC STUDY FfNDS DENSITY OF ALCOHOL OUTLETS ADVERSELY EFFECTS VIOLENT CAIME RATES LOS ANGELES, March 29, 1995 -- !n the first study specifically designed to investigate the geographio association between violent crime and alcohol outlet density, researchers at the University of Southern California School o# Medicine have found that density of alcohol outlets is linked to violent crime rates in Las Angeles County, Calif. The results of the study are reported in the March 1995, edition of the American Jouma/ of Public Hea/th. "Our data indicate that in i 990, in an average Los Ange(es County city of 50,000 residents, tOQ alcohaf outlets and 570 episodes of violent crime, each additional alcohol outlet was associated with 3.4 additional incidences of assaultive violence," said Richard A. Scribner, M.D., M.P.H., assistant professor of Preventive Medicine at the USC School of Medicine, assistant professor of Health Systems Research at Lauisiana State University Schoal of Medicine and principal investigator of the study. "Offenses defined as violent crime were criminal homieide, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault.° City-level data from 1990 from 74 contiguous Los Angeies County cities with populations greater than 10,000 were analyzed in t t,� study. - more - � � ' 2-2-2 ALCOHOL ANQ VIOLENT CRIME �l�- 3��- Data on assaultive violence; density of all alcohol ouflets, inciuding retaii establishments and on-site consumption establishments; and socioeconomic data, including economic status of the community, ethnicity, age sfructure, urbanicity and social structure, were analyzed by the researchers. °Our finding that each additional alcoho! outlet is assaciated with 3.4 additional vialent offenses is independent of socioeconamic factors," said James H. Dwyer, Ph.Q„ USC associate professor of preventive medicine and co-investigator of the study. Experimental studies on the effects on alcohol consumption in animals and humans consistently find an increased tendency to behave aggressive{y when alcohol is consumed. ln addition, epidemiolgic studies indicate that over 50 percent of all reported acts of violence involve alcohol. To decrease the incidence of violent crime, public health officials have recommended that communities faced with unacceptable levels of assaultive violence address issues re(ated to the physical availabifity of alcohol. "Our findings, that there is a geographic association between the rate of assaultive violence and the density of alcohof outlets across Los Angeles County suggest the need for further studies to evaluate the impact of actual change in alcohol availability on rates of violent crime," said Dwyer. According to Scribner, alcohol outlet density may affect violent behavior in indirect ways. For example, over time certain beh,�viars become associated with particular situat9ons where alcoho! is�+nvolved - more - � 3-3-3 AI.COHpL AND VIOLENT CRIME q�- to the extent that the behavior becomes normative for that situation. Therefore, even a sober person in these situations will likely express the stereotyped excessive behavior of a person under the influence of alcohol. Other research team members include: David P. MacKinnon, Ph.D., associate professor Psychology, Arizona State Universiry. Researchers Obtained data on assauliive violence from the California Department of Justice, data on the number of alcoholic beverage outlets from the California Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control and sociodsmographic data from the Cafifornia Department of Finance. The Universiry of Southern California School of Medicine is ranked among the nation`s leading academic medical institutions. The USC School of Medicine affiliated hospitals include USC University Hospital, USC/Norris Comprehensive Cancer Center, Doheny Eye lnstitute, l�os Angeles County + USC Medical Center and Childrens Hospitaf Los Angeles. ### ,� ii.�i The Risk of Assaultive Violence � and Alcohol Availability � 5 " � � in Los Angeles County Richard A. Scribner, MD, MPH, David P. MacKinnon, PhD, and James H. Dwyer, PhD Objectives. Although there is considerable evidence tUat a[cohol consumplion facHitates assaultive vio- lence, the ex[ent to wtuch alcohol outlets in a community influence assaultiveviolence remains controver 613�. . � .. . ... _ . Medtods. To assess the geo- graphic association between city- specific rates of assaultive violence and alcoholoutlet density, an eco- logic analysis of the 741arger cities in Los Angeles County was conducted for the 1990 reporting year. Re.rcdts. Sociodemographic fac- tors alone accounted for 70%'0 (Rz =.70) of the variance in the rate of assaultive violence in a muttiple regression modeL Adding the vari- able for alcoho2ouUet density to the model yielded a significant positive slope. The magnitude of this relation indicates that in a Typicat Los Ange- les County city (50 000 residents,lW wtlets, 57D offenses per year), one wUet was associated witli 3.4 addi- tional assaultive violence offenses in 1990. Conclusions.l$ese findings indi- cate that hig6er levels of alcohol- ouUet density aze geogtaphicaliy asso- ciated with higher ra[es of assauttive violence. This associarioa is mdepen- dent of ineasured confounders, in- cluding ciTydevel measures of unem- pioyment, ethnic/tacial� makeup, income, age shucture, citysize, house- hold size, and female-headed house- holds. (Am J PubTic Health 1995;85: 335-340) � � Introduction The nation's leading health officials have declazed a public health emergency to deal with the problem of assaultive violence in the United States.« The . declazation is an acknowledgment that existing crime prevention policy has failed to bring national rates of assaultive vio- lence under control. Rates of assaultive violence continue to remain at historic � levels, and recen[ trends suggest these rates may be rising even higher. � E�sting crime ptevention policy is , based on economic theory. It is believed that increasing the cos[ associated with ' committing a crime will deter or incapaci- � ta[e offendecs.° ConsequenUy, the num- � ber of incarcerated Americans has more �` chan tripled since 1975, makang both the . rate at which Americans aze incarcerated � and [he number of Americans incarcer- � ated the highest in the world.s Unfortu- - nately, national rates of homicide iemain �� four to five times higher than those of , other developed nations.b _ o Declaring assaut[ive violence a pub- lic health emergenry implies tha[ the . pmblem of assau![ive violence may yield » to public heatth interventions. Approaches - that appear to have been successful in -� reducing the risk of chronic diseases have . thus been proposed for countering the . epidemic of assaultive violence.� Central ` tothechronic-diseaseapproachistherole � of socioculNral factois in both the preven- tion and etiology of disease. ` For many yeazs, researcheis have � investigated [he hypothesis that alcohol .. consumption is a cause of assaultive � violence. Experimental srudies of the " effects of alcohol consumption in animals and humans consistently find an increased tendenry to behave aggressively when alcohol is consumed, and epidemiotogic studies find [hat over 50% of afl repoRed acts of assaultive violence imolve alco- hol.b These relations have been eapiained in terms of multiple partial ptocesses involving complex interactions among pharmacologic, socia(, and culmral fac- tors. Despi[e these complexities, some public health officials have recommended that communi[ies faced with unaccept- able levels of assaultive violence address issues related to the physicat availability of alcohol. Such recommendations as- sume a causal process in which mere availability of alcohol increases the risk of assaultive violence via incteased alcohol use or abuse. However, we know of no pubGshed studies providing epidemio- logic evidence for or against such a causal modei. The puxpose of the current study is to determine whether the rate of assaultive violence in Los Angeles County can be ecoiogically related to ihe density of alcohol ouUefs afrer accounting for sev- eral known conelates of assaultive vio- lence that may confound such an assa:ia- tion. City-level data from 74 conaguous cities within Los Mgeles Counry with popu(ationc greater than 10 000 in 1990 were used for the aaatysis. At t6e time of the smdy, Richard h Scribner and James H. ITryer were with the Depart- ment of Preventive Medicine, Univecsity of Southem Califomia, Los Mgeles, Calif; Dr Scrbner is now with the Department of Heaith S�stems Reseazch, Louisiana State Universiry, New Oxteans. David P. MacKinnon iswith the Department of Psychology, Atizona State Univeisiry, Tempe, Ariz. Reqvests for reprints should be sent to Richazd A Scribner, MD, MPH, Depaztment of Health Systems Research, Lovisiana State Univeisity, 1600 Canal St, Sth Floor, New Orleans, LA 70112. This paper was accepted August 12, 1994. March 1995, Vo1.85, No.3 American Joumal of Public I-Iealth 335 Research Hypotheses The empiricat or theoretical ralio- nale for inclusion of the following vari- ables in regression models is given below. 1. Atcohot-outlet de�uidy. Although we know of no previous work relating outlet density to violence per u, [here is statistical evidence linking both outlets where alcohol is sold to violence and alcoholout]et density to a number of nonviolent, alcohol-related outcomes. It has been reported, for erzample, that certain types of estabGshments where alcohol is sold are locations in which the situational risk of violence is etevated.u Situa[io�al risk of violence may derive from the physical nature of many aicohol outlets (e.g., unlighted pazking lots, lack of securiTy) or from the fad that they hring potential victims and offenders together in situations where [he risk of assaultive violence is grea[er for reasons unrelated to alcohol consumption it- sel£ Da[a from state, county, and ciTy leveis of aggregation have been used to link ouUet density to a number of alcohot- consumption-related outcomes, including alcohoL-associated motorvehicle crashes,ts arrests for drunk dmring and public drunkenness,�� cirrhosis mortality, and alcoholism ra[es. 2. Economic strucrure. Economic s[ructural approaches to understanding assaul[ive violence hypothesize that pov- erty and lack of opportunity predispose individuals to violent behavior,b One such model assumes that violeace azises when individuals aze denied legitimate access to resources for the realization of cultural goals. 3. Ethnicity. Minority status is stro�gly associated with being a victim of violencx.b Blacks, in particulaz, are at greater risk of being victims of viotent crune compazed with Whites for all age categories. The association between mi- nority status and violence may be related to both the economic and cultural faaors associated wi[h minority status in the United States, inciuding the physical structure of communities in which minori- ties tend to live.� 4. Age mucture. The age structure of a society is one the strongest predictors of violence victimization. Risk of victuniza- tion peaks among 15- to 19-yeaz-olds and declines with age. Age structure is also one •of the strongest predicto:s of alcohol consumption, with males in their twenties comprising the group with the highest consumplion.u� 336 AmericavJoumalofPublicHealth 5. Urbanrciry. 'I'he size of communi- ties in the United States is related to rates of assaultive violence. Small cities, rural cities, and suburt�an azeas tend to have lower crime rates than large cities and metropolitan areas. High population den- siry, another aspect of urbanicity, is also positively associated with rates of vio- lence.n 6. Sociul suuctwe. The social struo- ture of a communiTy is believed to be related to rates of violence. Wilsonffi argues that recent economic changes in Black communities have served to concen- trate the social isolation of urban ghettos. As the emerging Black middle class has moved out of inner-city azeas, the remain- ing residents have everdeclining re- sources. These communities can be identi- fied by a high rate of female-headed households. Metl:ods Data Collection All data analyzed are part of the Local Alcohol AvailabiliTy Database,�b with ciry as the uni[ of analysis. Orignal sources of [hese data are as follows: 1. Assaultive vio%nce data. Unifomt Crime Reports of assauitive violence at the city Ievel were obtained from the Califomia Departmen[ of Justice for the 1990 reporting yeaz. The Califomia De- partment of Justice maintains ciTy-Ievel Uniform Crime Reports data as part of the Federal Bureau of Investiga[ion's Uniform Crime Reporting program. Of- fenses defined as assaultive violence in- clude criminal homicide, forcible rape, robbery, and ag�avated assaul[.i These four types of assaultive-violence offenses for a city in 1990 were added together and divided by the total ciTy population in 1990. The per capita rate was then multiplied by 10IX10 to yield the rate of assaultive-violence events per 10 000 popu- lation. 2. Alcohol oudet data. In California, seven retail aicohol license types account for over 95% of all alcohol oullets. These seven aicohol license types were used for the detemunaUOn of outlet densiry. The speciSc license types are listed in Table 1. To render the outlet density data into a variable format that could be analyzed statisticalty, outleu were categoriZed as off-sale outlets and onsale outlets. Off- sale outlets aze retail establishmentswhere [he license type pemtits alcohol to be purchased for consumption off the pre- mises. Typically, these establishments in- `PS - �`t a- clude minunarkets (license type 20) and liquor stores (license type 21). On-sale outlets are retail establishmenu where the license type pemtits alcohol to be purchased for co�sumption on the pre- mises. Typically, these estabiishments in- clude bazs (Iicense types 40, 42, and 48) and restauranu (license types 41 and 47). Only license types listed as active by the California Departrnent of Alcoholic Beverage Control were included. The percentage of active licenses that aze actually inacwe for whatever reason has not been formally assessed; however, informal surveys estimate that 5% to 15% of active outlets may actually be inactive. Data on the number of alcohotic beverage outlets by [ype and city were obtained from the California Departrnent of Alcoholic Beverage Con[rol for the 1990 reporting yeaz. The total number of licenses within each ouUet category was summed, divided by the total city popula- tion in 1990, and then muitiplied by 10 000 to indicate the density of atcohol ouUets per 10 000 population. 3. Sociodemographic dam. Sociode- mographic data a[ the ciTy level w�°re ob[ained from the Califomia Department of Finance. The Department of Finance compiles Census Bureau da[a for a num- ber of variables. Only data compiled from the 1990 census were used. We estimated the economic status of a community by using both median house- hold income and the proportion of unem- ployed individuals over the age of 16 yeazs. The proportion of Blacks residing within a city in 1990 and the proportian of Latinos residing wi[hin a city in 1990 were used as estimates of the raciat/ethnic structure of a ciTy. Age s[ruc[ure was defined as [he ratio of males aged 20-29 years to males aged 40-q4 yea�. '1'Q indicate the level of urbanicity, rivp measures were incorporated: ciTy size and household formation. We estimated city size by using the total 1990 pppu�ation from the US census and household compo- sition by using [he �umber of households per 10 000 population. To measure a family characteristic, the proportion of female-headed households to total house- holds was used. Ci[ies with pppulations of fewer than 10 000 residents were excluded from the analysis. In previous studies of outlet density at the ciry leael, unstable estima[es of outlet density were obtained with cides that had a popu]ation of fewer than 10 000. For e�pple, industriai cities within I.os ,ynge��s ��Ty, may have 10 ouflets serving the daytime woxk force but March 1995, VoL S5, No.3 'r•,. ��Fi�q"'. only 500 residenu, yielding unrealistically high outlet densities contributing to a po[enualfy signfficant outlier effect i�.la StatisticalAnalySes Least-squazes regression analysis was used to examine the relation between the rate of assaultive violence and the covari- ates. All variables were transformed to their base 10 logarithms. The purpose of this transformation was to peimi[ inteipre- tation of the results in terms of etasticities. Thus, the regression slope, (i, estimates the percent change in the dependent variable associated with a 1% increase in a predictor variable. It has been proposed that the rela- tion benveen outlet density and alcohol- related outcomes may be modified by the effeas of economic or social structures. To determine whether the relation be- tween outlet density and violence de- pends on [he level of economic and social variables included in the models, two-way interaaions between outiet density and all variables were eicamined. Only logarith- mically transfoimed variables were used ro create the interaction terms. The means of the logarithmically transformed variables were subtracted from each obser- vation before multiplication. RQSUIIS Bivariate Analysis The percentages of different types of alcohol-outlet licenses in Los Angeles County aze reported in Tabte 1. These percentages for 1990 are from the Califor- nia Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control. Means and standazd deviations of study variables are presented in Table 2. Note that the standard deviation is large reSative to the mean for several vaziables, and the plots of these variables sugges[ skewed distributions. Logarithmic trans- focmation substantially reduces [his skew. In bivariate analysis all covariates demons[ra[ed an association with the ra[e of assaultive violence in the espected direction (see Table 3). Off-sale outlet density demonstrated much the same pattem of associations with the covariates as did the rate of assaultive violence, and it is coirelated 0.47 with violence. In contrast, on-sale outlets showed a correla- tion of greater than 0.4 with only one covariate (household composition). This pattem of associations indicates the need for multivariate anatysis to isolate the independent association of outlet density and rate of assaultive violence. q s - 3 `I �-- TABLE 1—Outlet Categories for Alcoholle Beverage CoMrol Llcense Types,1990 OWetCategory LicenseType Off-sale Minimarkeis Type 20, heer and vnne Liquorsiores Type2l,generel On-sale - Bars Type 40, beeronly public premises Type 42, beer and wine public premises Type 47, general public premises Restaurants Type 41, beer and wine eating place Type 48, general eating place Percentage of All Outlets (n = 16 598), 1990 23 . � 23 32 TABLE 2—AAeans and Standard Deviations for Study Variables Mean SD Sociodemographicvanables (n = 74) %unemployed 6.6 3.04 Median household income $40 922 $16 071 % Black 62 10.7 / Latino 36.5 27.4 Ratio of males 20.29 to males 40-44 2.9 1.1 No. households/t0 000 population 3507 821.1 City population 104 632 402 249 Female-headed households/total households 12.5 42 Alcohol availabiliry variables No. on-sale outle[s(t0 �00 population 11.1 7.2 No.off-saleou[lets/10000population 8.7 32 Total outlets/70000 population 79�9 9 �� Assaultive-violencevariable:assaWtiveoffenses/ 174.7 74.5 10 000 population Multivarinte Ana lysis Only the sociodemographic variables that may wnfound the rela[ion of interest were included in the initial model (Tabie 4, model 1). These sociodemographic vari2bles alone explained 70% of the variance in the rate of assaultive violence in [he 74 Los Angeles County ci[ies. Three variables—percent unemployed, percent Black, and the ratio of males aged 20-29 to males aged 40.4A—remained strongly related to the violence rates in Ihe mulpvaria[e analysis.In models 2, 3, and 4 in Table 4, different measures of outlet densiry were added ro the original model. Boih off-sale ouflet density (� � SE) (� _ .�6 � .21) and on-sale ouUet density (� _ .36 � .09) were significantly related to the rate of assaultive violence. How- ever, total outlet density (p =.62 � 14) was most strongly related to the city- specific rate of violent offenses. The model including [otal outlet density ex- plained the greatest amount of variance in the rate of assaultive violence (R =.7'n, increasing the amount of variance ex- plained by 7% over [he basic model. Comparison of model 1 wi[h model4 in Table 4 provides some estimates of the extent to which the significant relations between covariates and violence rates in model 1 were confounded by alcohoi- oudet density. Fifreen percent of the effec[ of unemployment and 45% of the effect of age structure (young men relative to older men) on the violence rate were explained by to[al outlet density. In contrast, none of the relation berneen the percentage of Blacks and the violence rate is explained by alcohol availabiliTy. Because all variables were entered as base 10 logarithms, the regression coeffi- cients can be inteipreted as elasucities. In the model for total outlet densiry (Table 4, modet 4), a 1.IX1% increase in the density of alcohol outlets is associated with a O.b2% � 0.14% increase in the rate of violent offenses in 1990. Thus, in an Mazch 1995, Vol. 85, No. 3 American Journal of Public Healih 337 -. . _ . ... . 15-3 Scribnec et at. TABLE 3-Pearson Correlation Coefficierrts among Stutty Variables Economic s[ructure Median income % unemployed Ethnicily % Black % Latmo Age structure: ratio of males 20.29 to males a0-44 Urbaniciry Totai population No. households/ 70 000 population Social struoture: %female- headed households Alcohol-outlet densiry On-sale densiry Off-sale densiry Total densiry Volence Rate -.59 70 57 52 .60 22 -29 72 .tt 47 25 Variables for Alcohol-Outlet Density On-Sale Off-Sale Total Density Density DensRy -.04 -.52 -21 -24 .46 -.0.3 -.72 -.01 -.70 -24 .50 -.02 -.10 55 17 -.02 -.02 -.02 .62 -.OS .46 -.31 .39 -.11 1.0 49 95 49 1.0 73 95 73 7.0 Note. A coeffiaent oL23 is significant with P=.OS (n = 74) TABLE 4--Coefficients (Standard Enors) for Regression Models in Which the Dependent Variable Is the City-SQeclflc Rate of Assauttive Violenee Soaodemographic variables (n = �4) Median income % unemployed qo Black % Latino Ratio of males 20-29 to males 40-44 Total population No. households/70 000 pop- ulation / female-headed households Availability of alcohol outlets On-sale density Off-sale densiry Total densiry R� fi� change (relatrve to model 1) Modell Model2 Model3 Model4 .53 (.60) .43 (.55) .33 (.58) .41 (.53) 1.09 (.31)*• 1.05 (29)" .90 (.31)•` .93 (28)`* .18 (.05)*` .18 (.OS)" 21 (.OS)** .20 (.OS)** .09 (20) -.07 (.19) -.04 (20) -.03 (.18) .56 (28)* .40 (26) .42 (27) .32 (25) -.01 (.0� .02 (.O6) .06 (.0� .O6 (.06) .79 (.59) -.0� (.59) .01 (.64) -.35 (.58) .03 (.38) .12 (.35) -.16 (.3� .16 (.37) 36 (.09)" 56 (21)' .62 (.74)•: 70 .75 .73 .77 OS 03 .07 Note. UnR of analysis is 74 cities within Los Mgeles Counry in 7990. Coefficients of variables are shown only if includetl m the model. All vanables were errtered as base 101ogarrthms. 'P < .QS: **P < .Oi. ' average Los Angeles County city of 50 000 residents with 100 alcohol outlets and 570 assaultive violence events in 1990 (see Table 2), one additional outlet is cross- sectionatly associated with a 0.62% in- crease in the number of violent offenses, or 3.4 additional offenses in 1990. Two-way interaction teims com- posed of ouUet densities and each of the independent variables were included in regression modeLs (see Table 5). The interaction terms for household composi- tion and both outlet-density types were posi[ive and significant. The effect size for off-sale outlets and household composi- tion was larger (S = 4.18 -! 2.2$) than that for on-sale outlets (� = 219 � 0.74), but the latter was estimated with greater precision. These findings indicate that the relation benveen alcohol outlets and assaultive violence is greater in communi- ties where there are fewer people per household. Another two-way interaction that modified the rela[ion between outlet density and rate of assaultive violence was that of ciry size and off-sale outlet density. The interaction is negative ((3 = -1.72 � .52). Ttvs finding indicates that the associa- tion between off-sale ouHets and assault- ive violence is greater in smaller communi- ties. None of the other interactions was signi6cant (see Table 5). Discussion Our findings demons[rate a geo- graphic association between the rate of assaultive violence and the density of alcohol out]ets in 74 Los Angeles CounTy cities. Specifically, the rate of assaultive violence across Los Angeles Counry ciqes during 1990 was significantly associated with the densiTy of both on-sale and off-sale alcohol outlets. Although these findings are from analysis of cross- sectional ecologic data, which means that numerous alternative explanations are plausible, they aze consistent with a model in which alcohol availability has an impact on vio]ence. As mentioned above, evi- dence from o[her sources renders such a model plausible. For e�mple, faaois associated with [he environment surround- ing alcohol consump[ion have been linked to assaultive violence in various types of studies.�• Cross-sectional relations be[ween al- cohol-outlet density and other alcohol- related outcomes have been de[ected across several domains of outcome. These include alcohol-related civil offenses, alco- hol-related mortaliTy, and a]cohol-in- volved motor vehicle crashes.i� Despite the fact that these results aze consistent with this previous body of research and do suggest a shared pathway mediated by ,outlet-sensitive factors, a number of limi- tations must be noted in the interpreta- tion of these findings. First, unmeasured or confounding factors could account for the findings presented. Longimdinal analy- sis of ecologic data on this issue wouid be instructive, because some unmeasured confovnders would be filtered from differ- ence scores. Second, the degee to which city as a unit of anaiysis adequa[ety 33R American Sournal of Public Health March 1995, Vol. 85, No. 3 TABLE ��Ceetticie�NS (SWndard Errors) fram Models Regressing Cky-SpeciNe Fiates et AssauRtve Yiolence on lnteracttae Terms Composed of Outlet Density antl Listed Covariates G Motlel7 Model2 Main effects Availability of aicohol oWets On-sale Oens"rty Off-sale densiry Covariates % Black % unemployed Total population No. households/10 000 popu- lation sa izs7 Motlel3 Model4 Mode15 Model6 Model7 ModelB 34 (20) .38 (.13)� .30 �.09)` 23 (23) .32 (25) .12 (.5� 21 (.45) 19 (.OS)� 27 (.OSj' 1.05 (.31)' .97 (.33)' —.03 (.OB) .03 (.09) .08 (.56) .t4 (.65) Interaclion Densiry x covariate R� 17 (.14) —29 (.35) —.03 (.3� —.67 (.78) .09 (.33) —1.72 (.52)' 229 (.74)' 4.18 (228)' 75 72 74 72 74 76 ]8 .73 Note. The irrteracLOn term is composetl of Me availabitity vanable 2ntl the covariate variable, whaSe coetficients are also preserrted in each labeled model column. Onty Ne iMerdc[ion tertn antl the rtwn ettects are p(esentetl br eaGh modal. Atltlrtbnal5xiodemog2phic covanates were inGutled in the modal (see Ta61e 4). 6u[ the coetficienls are not shown here. All vanahles were transYOrmetl to hase 10 logarithms before analysis. *P < .05. captures the relation in question was not deteimined. Further research is needed to determine the rate at which cross- boundary purchases and outcomes occur a[ several units of ana]ysis (e.g., county, ciry, zip code, census tract) so tha[ the potential for bias associated with the relative size of the unit of analysis can be assessed. Third, the use of outlet-density data as a pro�cy measure of alcohol availability dces not acknowledge that a number of other factors are also associ- ated wiYh the availability of alcohol (e.g., price, alcohol con[ent of the product). Finally, the proportion of assaultive- violence offenses attributable to aScohol could not be estimated. Thus, the interpre- tation of these findings assumes [hat this proportion is relatively constant acrass Los Angeles CounTy cities, which may not be the case. However, a pretiminary study of Califomia cities demonstrates that when alcohol involvement is recorded by laal police, the proportion of offenses in which alcohol is involved is consistent across cities3z In the multivariate anatysis the only crnariates besides outlet density that were consistenNy associated with the ra[e of assaultive violence were percent Black and percent unemployed. Considering that all the covariates have previously been described as predictors of assaultive violence and that all the covariates demon- strated an association with assaultive viw lence in bivariate analysis, the telative im- portance of the percent Black and percent unemployed variables is notaworthy. The positive interaction between al- cohol outtets and household composi[ion seems paradoxical. Communities in which the num6er of individuats per househo(d is (ow are generally thought [o have a higher living standard.b The finding of a positive interaction indicates that fewer persons per household may be a prmry for social isolation, which may facilitate the relation between ouflet density and as- saultive violence. The interaction between alcohoi outlets and ciry size suggests [ha[ in small communities off-sale outlets (i.e., convenience stores and liquor stores) serve a broader sceial role compared with off-sale outlets in Varger communities, where other types of commercia! establish- ments (e.g., malls) serve [he same sociai role but do not emphasize the sate of alcohol. It is worthwhile to place these find- ings in the conte# of e�sting theories used to describe associations among alco- hol-related outcomes, alcohol consump- [ion, and alcohol availability. Skog sug- gested that a community-]evel factor like community norms must be invoked to explain the consistency with which a log normal dis[ribution can be applied across populations to characterize the dis[ribu- tion of alcohol consumption within a population} In this conte�. alcohol- outlet densiTy could represent an emiron- mental fac[or that shapes community norms related to alcohol consumption in a community. Pernanen also postuiated a mediat- ing effect for communiry norms in [he relation between alcohol use and vio- lencx. However, Pemanen suggested that violent behavior in a communiry is not necessarily accociated with nocros affect- ing alcohol consumption bu[ with norms that have azisen azound situations in which alcohol is consumed. Accozding to Pernanen, alcohol predisposes individuals toward excessive forms of behavior. Over time, a pasticular behavioc can become associated with a particular situation such [hat [he behavior becomes expected or nomiat'r�e for the situatian ° Thus, even for a sober individua! the normative ex- peMation in certain situations is to e7cpress the stereoTyped excessive behavior. The density of alcohol outlets may be a factor that tends [o inAuence this process of cultural evolutio�. As the number of venues in which alcohol-influenced behav- ior is witnessed inaeases, the adoption of excessive norms is promoted. The fad that some ind'mduals are able to resist community norms more than others indicates tha[ individual-level fac- [ors protect against deleterious commu- niTy norms. However, the implica[ion of these findings is [hat interventions de- signed to help individuals tesist de(eteri- ous community norms could be supported by communiry-level interventions directed a[ alcohol availability. These efforts might pmmote the evolution of less deleterious community norms. In summary, the findings add assault- ive viotence to an increasing lis[ of alcohol-related outcomes that have been associated with alcohol-outle[ density in �� March 1995, Vol. &S, No. 3 American loumal of Public Health 339 Scribner et al. ecologic analyses.�� Although no infer- ences can be drawn as to the direc[ion of the relation between outlet density and assaultive violence, the findings do indi- cate that higher levels of ouilet density are geographically assceiated with a higher rate of assaultive violence independent of the effect of a number of potentiat confounders. Similaz relaaons between ou[let densiry and other alcohol-related outcomes have prompted public health officials to recommend that locatities use measures that address the physical avail- ability of atcohol to reduce alcohol- relatedproblems. ❑ Acknowledgments This research was supported in part by Na- [ional Institute of Alcoholism and Alcohol Abuse grant AA08361. 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